On June 8, technical analyst ChartNerd published a detailed breakdown of XRP’s market cycle, arguing that the present bear market appears to be both shallower and potentially shorter than prior cycles. He suggested there is a realistic possibility of a cycle bottom forming before the end of 2026, which could set the stage for XRP to eventually target $27.
What the Historical Comparison Shows
ChartNerd’s analysis points out that previous XRP bear markets typically lasted between 400 and 790 days and produced drawdowns of roughly 85% to 90% from peak levels. By contrast, the current correction — as measured at the time of his post — had persisted for about 350 days and amounted to an approximate 70% decline from the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
Both duration and drawdown in the current cycle are therefore milder than comparable historical declines, and the analyst views that softening trend as an important signal. He wrote that the conditions for identifying a historical bottom before the end of the year are approaching, and that these price levels warrant closer attention despite a low probability of an immediate expansion.
“The territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching. These prices are where we need to start paying attention to the fact that although the chances of an immediate expansion might be low, a cycle bottom could genuinely be on the horizon.”
ChartNerd did not rule out the possibility of further downside. His broader macro view leaves room for additional weakness in coming months that could be required to form a definitive cycle low. Once that low is established, he anticipates an accumulation phase that could precede a move toward Fibonacci extension targets at $8, $13, and ultimately $27.
The analyst also noted one outlier in XRP’s past: the 2014 bear market. That cycle produced an approximately 96% drop over roughly 210 days to reach its trough, but it then took XRP more than 1,200 days to surpass its prior highs. That lengthy recovery included a major wick low in late 2017 followed by a peak in January 2018, illustrating that exceptions to the general pattern do occur and recoveries can take much longer than expected.
Where XRP Stands in the Broader Picture
At the time of the report, XRP was trading near $1.15, about 12% lower than a week earlier and roughly 19% below its level one month prior. During the prior week, XRP hit a 19-month low at $1.05 before rallying back to $1.20 and then pulling back slightly. The brief rebound underscores the volatility still affecting the token amid broader market forces.
One positive development during this period involved spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These funds recorded a net inflow of $2.62 million for the week. While modest in absolute terms, that inflow stands out when compared with their peers: spot Bitcoin ETFs registered outflows of more than $1.7 billion over the same span, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of approximately $173 million.
By comparison, HYPE-focused ETFs experienced stronger inflows, bringing in nearly $17 million, while funds tracking Litecoin (LTC), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hedera (HBAR) showed little to no movement. The relative resilience of spot XRP ETFs represents a small but notable bright spot amid a broadly risk-off environment for crypto investment products.
In summary, ChartNerd’s assessment frames the current XRP correction as milder than historical bear markets and highlights the potential for a cycle bottom to form before the end of 2026. That scenario could pave the way for an accumulation phase and eventual moves toward higher Fibonacci extension levels, though the analyst cautions that further downside cannot be ruled out and recovery trajectories can vary significantly, as seen in past cycles.