- Bitcoin recorded its first negative October performance in six years and is now trading around $107,000.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve comments about a possible delay to rate cuts in December pressured prices.
- Historically, November is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months (average returns of 42%).
Bitcoin entered November in a fragile position after suffering its first negative October in six years, a pullback that left investors debating whether it was a healthy correction or the start of a deeper downtrend.
The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading near $107,000, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours.
Recent weakness culminated in a significant deleveraging event on November 3, when more than $1.16 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated, highlighting the intensity of selling pressure.
Macro headwinds drove a “red October”
The negative monthly performance unfolded against a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered the anticipated rate cuts, subsequent remarks from Chair Jerome Powell dampened market hopes for further easing in December, creating uncertainty that weighed on risk assets like Bitcoin.
That caution showed up in market data: Bitcoin’s U.S. session returns cooled from +0.94% on October 29 to -4.56% over the past week, according to Velo.
On a more positive note, geopolitical tensions eased after a trade agreement was reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Mid-cycle correction or the end of the rally?
Despite the recent downturn, some market analysts view the sell-off as a constructive development for the broader bull market.
“So could this red October actually set up the next major leg in Bitcoin’s bull cycle? I think that’s highly possible,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt.
Corrections like this tend to represent a midpoint in a broader cycle rather than its conclusion.
This optimistic view is backed by strong on-chain metrics showing persistent structural demand from long-term holders, despite short-term price volatility.
History suggests a strong November rebound is possible
Historical performance data further bolsters the bullish case for the month ahead. November has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering an average return of about 42% over the past 12 years.
That trend, alongside a still-positive average return of 6.05% for the third quarter, suggests the underlying upward momentum remains intact.
“For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious confidence,” Lin said.
Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets digest Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could trigger a recovery.
The analyst emphasized that if Bitcoin continues to follow typical post-halving cycles, the long-term outlook remains bright.
Citing strong fundamentals—from ETF inflows to growing institutional adoption—Lin believes a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.