- Whale-to-exchange transfers have dropped to zero.
- CMF and MACD indicate bullish momentum.
- The price could climb back to $3.40 or fall to $1.54 if demand weakens.
XRP spent most of the second quarter below the $3.00 threshold and failed to produce any meaningful breakout despite multiple attempts.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency trades at $2.17, a decline of 0.32% over the past 24 hours.
This price level reflects a continuation of the range-bound action that has characterized XRP since mid-April.
The ongoing consolidation comes as overall market volatility eases and investors await catalysts that could shape price action in the third quarter.
Technical and on-chain metrics, however, suggest XRP may be on the verge of a trend shift.
Key indicators like the MVRV Z-score point toward undervaluation, and the sell-off by whales has slowed to a halt, indicating a potential change in market dynamics.
If these trends persist, XRP could break out of its sideways pattern and move toward retesting its January highs.
Undervalued according to the MVRV Z-score
The current Z-score for XRP’s market value to realized value (MVRV) stands at 2.13.
Historically, XRP has reached overbought levels when this metric has ranged between 3.45 and 6.72.
For example, in January the Z-score reached 6.65 when the token hit $3.25, which was followed by price rejection and a subsequent correction.
A failed recovery attempt in March also coincided with a relatively high Z-score.
Those episodes contributed to the token’s recent consolidation.
Today’s lower reading suggests XRP remains undervalued under current market conditions and that downward pressure from previous overvaluation phases may be easing.
Should accumulation build, a renewed rally could follow.
Whale activity reaches zero as selling pauses
Large holders, commonly called whales, have historically played a significant role in XRP’s price moves.
According to recent data from CryptoQuant, whale-to-exchange transactions have fallen to zero.
Just two days earlier, there were 2,716 such transfers, signaling heavy selling pressure.
The drop to zero suggests whales are no longer moving holdings to exchanges and are opting to hold rather than liquidate.
This pause in sell-offs could help stabilize XRP around the $2.17 level and position the asset for potential upside.
Part of this sentiment shift may be tied to macroeconomic expectations, particularly around monetary policy.
With growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin rate cuts between July and September, investors are re-evaluating their risk exposures.
If borrowing costs ease, capital could flow back into crypto markets, including XRP.
Technical indicators support a bullish setup
Daily charts present several technical signals that align with the bullish on-chain data.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator of buying and selling pressure, has crossed above the zero line and is approaching the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern.
A breakout from that formation could confirm the start of a new uptrend.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has also turned upward and produced a bullish crossover, reinforcing upward momentum.
If this trend continues, XRP could clear resistance at $2.25 and move toward $2.69, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
Furthermore, if sustained volume supports the rally, XRP could attempt to retest its January high of $3.40 before the end of the next quarter. Continued strength could even put a new all-time high within reach.
However, a reversal remains possible if whale selling resumes or broader market demand softens.
In that scenario, XRP could decline to $1.54, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci support level.