- Bitwise expects Bitcoin to deliver a 28% annualized return over the next decade.
- Institutions now treat Bitcoin as an allocation within stock and bond portfolios.
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases are driving steadily rising long-term adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitwise Asset Management forecasts that Bitcoin will outperform all major asset classes over the next ten years, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% and gradually declining volatility.
The projection appears in a new memo that previews the firm’s forthcoming long-term capital markets assumptions report for Bitcoin.
Framework: Institutional Demand as the Key Driver
The report, authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is aimed at large platforms and professional allocators who increasingly treat Bitcoin as a “core” portfolio consideration.
Hougan notes this shift followed the introduction and broad approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.
Interest in long-term planning has risen noticeably.
Hougan says Bitwise received more than a dozen requests this year for long-term Bitcoin assumptions, whereas none were received between 2017 and 2024.
He views this as a turning point: institutions are now evaluating Bitcoin in the same way they evaluate stocks, bonds, and other traditional assets.
Favorable Comparisons with Traditional Markets
Although the full report has not yet been released, the preview indicates that Bitcoin’s expected returns, volatility profile, and correlations compare favorably with existing asset classes.
Bitwise characterizes Bitcoin’s correlation to other major assets as “low,” generally ranging between -0.5 and 0.5, which many allocators see as a diversification benefit.
The asset manager’s outlook for Bitcoin echoes the annual capital markets forecasts published by major Wall Street firms such as J.P. Morgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
Those traditional forecasts help institutions set long-term strategic allocations across equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.
Hougan argues that, given the maturation of digital assets and their integration into mainstream investment products, similar guidance for digital assets is now necessary.
Growing On-Chain and Corporate Holdings
Spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in January 2024 have quickly attracted attention and inflows.
According to data from The Block, on-chain holdings associated with these ETFs have grown to represent nearly 7% of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21,000,000 coins, managing over $146 billion in assets.
Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.
Public companies, led by MicroStrategy with 629,376 BTC, have accumulated Bitcoin holdings with a total value exceeding $80 billion.
Many of these purchases were financed through capital markets activity, including equity offerings and convertible bond issuances.
Bitwise’s full long-term capital markets assumptions report for Bitcoin is expected to be released later this week.
The report will present the firm’s detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, and it will place Bitcoin side-by-side with the long-term forecasts used by leading global asset managers for traditional asset classes.
For Bitwise, the release marks an effort to position Bitcoin within the same multi-decade framework used to evaluate conventional investments.
For institutions, it signals growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a serious allocation choice with definable risks and return expectations—rather than merely a speculative play.