- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028.
- Hayes delivered the bold forecast during a keynote at Token2049 in Dubai.
- Bitcoin has already traded as high as $109,000.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, reiterated a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) during a keynote address at Token2049 in Dubai, saying the flagship cryptocurrency could surge to $1 million as early as 2028.
Known for his market analysis and outspoken views, Hayes told attendees this could be an environment to “go long on everything,” as he expects major shifts in monetary and fiscal conditions to fuel asset price appreciation.
Hayes delivered the forecast as Bitcoin traded near the mid-$90,000 range, with buyers setting their sights on $100,000 and the potential to eclipse previous records.
Volatility has marked Bitcoin’s recent path, with price swings influenced by tariff developments, macro uncertainty and broader risk-off sentiment across markets.
Bitcoin to $1 million — how plausible?
Bitcoin recently reached highs around $109,000, and many analysts project a climb to $150,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025. Beyond those near-term targets, a cohort of long-term bulls, including prominent industry figures, foresee a trajectory that extends toward $1 million.
In his Token2049 remarks, Hayes framed his argument around anticipated macroeconomic trends and U.S. fiscal policy. He argued that an eventual surge of liquidity into capital markets would be a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s parabolic move higher.
Hayes anchored his view in monetary policy comparisons to the third quarter of 2022, when the market was reeling from the collapse of exchange FTX and investor sentiment suffered amid aggressive rate-hike expectations. He pointed to the U.S. government’s significant liquidity injections that year as a playbook for future policy actions.
Hayes also referenced the U.S. Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, highlighting two signals he watches closely: higher borrowing estimates and a lower Treasury General Account (TGA) target. Both, he suggests, would be liquidity-positive and supportive of risk assets including Bitcoin.
US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Acc. drops 28th & 30th, what are we looking for:
– Est. of next quarter’s borrowing, an increase over prior est. is $ liq +ve
– Target TGA balance, the lower the target the better for $ liq
– Any comments on bond market due to tariffs— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 26, 2025
Hayes acknowledged that tariffs and related policy moves could introduce near-term volatility, but he argued that substantial Treasury purchases and other liquidity measures would indirectly boost market liquidity and create a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s ascent.
Other notable voices have also offered lofty targets. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has set a $1 million Bitcoin target by 2030, while on-chain analytics firms point to metrics that historically precede major price advances.
Analysts at CryptoQuant have noted that realized capitalization — a measure of market value based on prices at the time coins last moved — is approaching new all-time highs. Historically, sizable increases in realized capitalization have been followed by significant price rallies for BTC.
New All-Time Highs in Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization
“Historically, large accumulations of Realized Capitalization have been mostly followed by considerable price increases in Bitcoin.” – By @oro_crypto
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 30, 2025
On-chain data also suggests renewed accumulation by large holders. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, whales bullish on Bitcoin have added more than 43,100 BTC over the past two weeks, representing nearly $4 billion in value at recent prices.
While predictions vary in timing and magnitude, the common thread among bullish observers is an expectation of stronger liquidity conditions, persistent institutional interest and continued on-chain accumulation — factors they believe could underpin substantial upside for Bitcoin over the coming years.