- Bitcoin posted its first negative monthly performance in October in six years and is now trading around $107,000.
- Hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve about a potential December rate cut weighed on prices.
- November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months (average return 42%).
Bitcoin enters November from an uncertain footing after recording its first negative monthly return in October in six years. That pullback has prompted investors to ask whether this move is a healthy consolidation or the start of a deeper downtrend.
The leading cryptocurrency currently trades near $107,000, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours.
Recent weakness culminated in a major deleveraging event on November 3, when long positions with over $1.16 billion in leverage were liquidated, highlighting the severity of the sell-off.
Macro headwinds drove a “red October”
The negative monthly outcome unfolded amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Although the U.S. central bank delivered a rate cut as anticipated, follow-up remarks from Chair Jerome Powell reduced market expectations for another cut in December. That shift created uncertainty that pressured risk assets like Bitcoin.
This caution shows up in market data: Bitcoin’s U.S. session returns dropped from +0.94% on October 29 to -4.56% over the past week, according to Velo.
Geopolitical tensions eased somewhat after a trade agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, which removed one source of market stress.
Mid-cycle pullback or the end of the bull run?
Despite the recent downturn, some market participants view the selling as a constructive development for the broader bull market.
“So could this red October form an important leg higher in Bitcoin’s up-cycle? I think that is entirely possible,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt.
Such corrections often represent the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end.
This optimistic view is supported by robust on-chain data indicating that long-term structural demand from holders remains intact despite short-term price volatility.
History suggests a strong November rebound is possible
Historical performance offers an additional bullish case for the coming month. November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.
That trend, combined with an average positive return of 6.05% for the third quarter, suggests the underlying bullish trend remains intact.
“For November, I expect a period of consolidation and cautious optimism,” Lin said.
Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as the market absorbs Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could spark a recovery.
Analysts note that, if Bitcoin continues to follow the typical post-halving cycle, stronger gains could follow the current consolidation.
Pointing to solid fundamentals—from ETF inflows to growing institutional adoption—Lin believes a move toward $120,000–$150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.