Key points
- ADA has fallen 4% in the last 24 hours and now trades below $0.37.
- The bearish trend could push ADA below the psychological $0.30 level.
Cardano on-chain data signals further downside
Cardano’s ADA dropped 4% over the past 24 hours, ranking among the worst performers within the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. This decline comes amid weakening on-chain indicators.
Santiment’s Social Dominance metric for Cardano points to a continued bearish outlook. This index measures the share of conversations about ADA across crypto media and social channels.
The metric has steadily fallen since mid-November, reaching an annual low of 0.032% on Thursday. That decrease reflects waning market interest and deteriorating sentiment among Cardano investors.
Selling pressure has also increased as more traders move coins from wallets to exchanges, signaling that investors are reducing exposure to ADA.
Derivatives data further support a bearish bias. Coinglass’s open-interest-weighted funding rate shows a growing number of traders betting on a near-term ADA price drop.
The OI-weighted funding rate turned negative on Thursday, falling to -0.0019%, which suggests shorts are paying longs. When this metric turns negative, ADA typically faces significant selling pressure.
ADA may retest $0.30 as bears retain control
The 4-hour ADA/USD chart looks bearish and inefficient after recent underperformance. ADA was rejected at the upper trendline of a descending wedge on December 9 and has lost roughly 22% since then.
At the time of writing, ADA trades around $0.36 and appears vulnerable to further downside. If the bearish momentum persists, sellers could push the price toward the October 10 low near $0.27.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 31, approaching oversold territory and signaling strong bearish momentum. The MACD also produced a bearish cross on Monday, reinforcing the negative outlook.
If bulls regain strength, ADA could rebound toward the 50-day EMA near $0.47 in the coming days.