Key points
- Over the past 24 hours BTC has fallen about 1% and is trading below $113,000.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points today.
FOMC meeting dominates the headlines
Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are showing cautious, slightly bearish sentiment as they struggle to overcome key resistance levels. Bitcoin slipped below $113,000 and is currently trading near $112,950 per coin.
This price action followed a rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Bearish moves in the past few hours have intensified ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points, a move that could support Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies in the near term. The rate cut is anticipated despite an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that has caused delays in economic data releases over the last three weeks.
Bitcoin could reach $120,000 if the bullish trend resumes
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart shows a recent bearish phase, reflecting a dip in Bitcoin’s performance over the last 24 hours. The downturn followed a re-test and subsequent rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $115,137 earlier this week. Bitcoin is down roughly 1% in the past day and is trading below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at about $112,950.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 60, indicating a mild bullish bias among traders. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish cross on Sunday, supporting the optimistic outlook.
If Bitcoin holds above $112,000 and closes the daily candle above $115,137, it could extend its rally toward the important psychological level of $120,000. A decisive daily close above that resistance would strengthen the case for further upside.
Conversely, failure to break and close above the $115,137 resistance may allow Bitcoin to lose recent momentum and slide toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $106,453. A move below that level would signal a deeper correction and could shift market sentiment toward the downside.