- Cryptocurrency markets have entered a holding pattern, with Bitcoin near $108,164.
- Traders are awaiting a key US inflation report (CPI) due Friday.
- Expectations are rising for de-escalation in the US–China trade dispute.
Cryptocurrency markets settled into a midweek holding pattern as prices for Bitcoin and other major digital assets remained largely sideways while traders prepare for a crucial US inflation release and look for signs of easing in the US–China trade tensions.
Bitcoin traded around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down about 2% for the week. Ether changed hands near $3,815.
That stabilization reflects what analytics firm QCP Capital described as a “narrow-range balance,” a quiet period before a potential storm.
All eyes on the US inflation report
Market focus is squarely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Friday, the lone major US economic release not delayed by the ongoing partial government shutdown.
In a recent note, QCP called CPI the “single most important” data point for policy expectations and broader risk sentiment.
A softer-than-expected print, the firm said, could “re-anchor soft-landing trades” and support Bitcoin as bets for looser monetary policy strengthen.
Growing hopes for a US–China détente
Adding complexity to the market picture is a shift in the dynamics of the US–China trade feud.
Sentiment improved after a weekend of sharp headlines in which President Trump initially threatened a large new wave of tariffs but later softened his tone, saying “the US wants to help China, not hurt it.”
That change prompted markets to reassess risk. Traders on Polymarket now assign a 77% probability that a tariff deal will be reached by November 10, while the chance of Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs taking effect has fallen to just 16%.
A cleaner slate after a brutal liquidation
The fragile calm comes just days after a brutal market-wide sell-off that saw nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions liquidated.
The massive flush reset the market, creating a cleaner slate for macro traders as they head into the important CPI event.
The key question now is whether the “soft landing” narrative will be validated by Friday’s inflation data, or whether the volatility that has defined markets in recent weeks will reawaken.
What to watch in the market
For Bitcoin, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that while sellers are limiting any immediate breakout, a drop below $100,000 could represent the “last chance to buy” before the next major leg higher.
The picture for Ethereum is more mixed.
A recent $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered a wave of profit-taking and liquidations, leaving analysts split between a potential breakout toward $5,000 and a downside scenario toward $2,850 if the key support level near $3,470 fails to hold.