- Dogecoin has extended its sell-off, with bears targeting $0.10 as on-chain and derivatives indicators turn negative.
- Large wallet holders are trimming DOGE positions while short bets increase and retail interest wanes.
- A sustained move above $0.12 could trigger a relief rally toward $0.15–$0.18, but downside risks remain elevated.
Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped 3% on Thursday, following a roughly 4% drop in the prior session.
The portion of DOGE supply held in profit has declined as major wallet holders reduce their positions.
Derivatives market data also point to rising bearish bets while retail participation appears to be fading.
Technically, Dogecoin shows a negative bias after falling below its April low, with downside risk extending toward $0.10.
Dogecoin shows weak investor interest
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE now control 34.77 billion tokens, down from 36.14 billion on December 1.
This investor cohort sold over 1 billion DOGE on December 10 and has largely held steady since then.
Meanwhile, the share of DOGE supply held in profit has dropped to 50.70% from a peak of 53.95% on December 3, suggesting a gradual softening in demand.
Dogecoin has also lost momentum on derivatives markets.
CoinGlass data show short positions in DOGE derivatives rising to 53.91% from 52.59% on Wednesday.
This increase in bearish positioning signals growing selling pressure and coincided with more than $5 million in long DOGE liquidations over the past 24 hours.
Dogecoin price extends losses toward $0.12
Dogecoin has seen a notable decline in recent sessions, slipping below key psychological levels and extending losses toward $0.12.
At the time of writing, DOGE traded around $0.125, down roughly 10% over the past week and about 19% on the month.
The 24-hour move continues a downtrend that began earlier this month.
This pullback follows a short period of consolidation above $0.14, where buyers briefly defended higher ground.
However, rising selling volume and a broader retreat from risk assets pushed Dogecoin below the $0.14 support level.
On-chain data point to reduced supply held in profit, with large wallet investors trimming positions.
Profit-taking has added to volatility, with macroeconomic headwinds also weighing heavily.
“Crypto remains trapped in macro cross-currents. Potential exclusions from MSCI indexes for crypto firms could trigger up to $2.8 billion in passive outflows, putting pressure on fragile positioning,” analysts at QCP Group wrote.
Overall, the outlook suggests crypto faces an uncertain end to the year.
Downside risk for DOGE rises
Trading volumes have surged during declines, indicating conviction among sellers.
The daily Relative Strength Index has fallen toward oversold territory, signaling intense downward pressure but also leaving room for a short-term rebound if buying interest returns.
Despite that, downside risk for Dogecoin appears to be rising.
Analysts increasingly point to $0.10 as a likely short-term support level if bears maintain control.
A decisive close below the current support near $0.12 could open the door to further losses.
Conversely, holding above $0.12 could stabilize the price and enable a relief rally toward $0.15 and $0.18.
Investors should monitor key support levels closely, since a break could confirm a deeper correction, while positive divergences in indicators may foreshadow a potential reversal.