- Analysts estimate forced outflows of up to $15 billion if passive funds are required to sell.
- Strategy accounts for nearly three-quarters of the impacted float-adjusted market capitalisation.
- MSCI’s final decision is due by Jan. 15, with possible implementation in February 2026.
Crypto treasury companies face significant selling pressure if MSCI moves forward with a proposal to exclude them from its equity indexes. Campaigners and market analysts warn that removal from widely tracked benchmarks could force passive funds to divest billions of dollars of crypto-linked holdings.
The debate has grown louder as markets absorb months of declining prices and index providers reassess how to classify companies that hold large amounts of digital assets. With MSCI’s timetable now clear, corporate treasuries, investors and index-watchers are closely following what could be a defining moment for crypto’s role in mainstream equity benchmarks.
Potential selling pressure builds
BitcoinForCorporations, a group opposing the proposal, estimates that exclusions could trigger between $10 billion and $15 billion in passive outflows. That calculation is based on a verified preliminary list of 39 companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalisation of about $113 billion.
Independent analysts looking at the same group of firms estimate potential outflows of roughly $11.6 billion across all affected companies. The largest single exposure is Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which represents about 74.5% of the total impacted float-adjusted market cap.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests Strategy alone could see some $2.8 billion in outflows if it were removed from MSCI indexes. Such forced selling could add downward pressure to crypto markets that have already been on a weak trend for nearly three months.
Why MSCI rules matter
MSCI announced in October that it was consulting investors on whether companies that hold the majority of their balance sheet in crypto should be excluded from certain indexes. These benchmarks are widely used by passive investment funds around the world to determine which stocks to hold, so inclusion or exclusion can have direct consequences for a company’s access to capital and the composition of its shareholder base.
For crypto treasury firms, remaining in major indexes has become increasingly important as institutional ownership expands. A rule change that leads to exclusion would not be a mere technical adjustment but a structural shift in how global asset managers treat companies with substantial digital-asset holdings.
Balance sheet debate intensifies
BitcoinForCorporations argues that using balance-sheet composition as the deciding factor is flawed. The group contends that a single metric—percentage of assets held in crypto—does not capture whether a company operates a legitimate business with customers, recurring revenue and ongoing operations.
Under the proposed approach, firms could be removed from indexes even if their core business model and operations remain intact. The group has urged MSCI to abandon the proposal and to continue classifying companies based on business activity, financial performance and operational characteristics rather than on crypto exposure alone.
Opponents warn that the rule would effectively penalise companies for holding digital assets without assessing how those assets fit within a broader corporate strategy, potentially distorting investment decisions and the treatment of innovative business models.
MSCI is expected to publish its final decision by January 15. If the proposal is approved, implementation would be scheduled for the February 2026 Index Review, setting the stage for potential large-scale reallocations by passive funds and heightened volatility for the affected stocks and underlying crypto markets.