- Bitcoin recorded its first negative October performance in six years and is now trading around $107,000.
- Fed hawkish comments about a possible December rate cut weighed on the price.
- Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with an average return of 42%.
Bitcoin enters November on uncertain footing after suffering its first negative October in six years, a decline that has investors asking whether this move was a healthy correction or the start of a deeper bear trend.
The leading cryptocurrency currently trades near $107,000, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours.
Recent weakness culminated in a sharp deleveraging event on November 3, when over $1.16 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated, underscoring the intensity of the sell-off.
Macroeconomic headwinds drive a “red October”
The negative monthly performance unfolded against a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Although the Federal Reserve delivered an expected rate cut, subsequent remarks by Chair Jerome Powell dampened market expectations for another cut in December, creating uncertainty that pressured risk assets like Bitcoin.
That caution showed up in market data: according to Velo, Bitcoin’s returns in the U.S. cooled from a positive 0.94% on October 29 to negative 4.56% over the past week.
On a brighter note, geopolitical tensions eased somewhat after a trade agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which removed one layer of external risk.
Correction mid-cycle or the end of the bull run?
Despite the recent pullback, some market participants view the sell-off as a constructive development within a broader bull market.
“Could this red October actually set the stage for the next major leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle? I think that’s entirely possible,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures.
These kinds of corrections tend to be the middle of a broader cycle rather than the end.
This bullish view is supported by robust on-chain data indicating that long-term structural demand from holders remains strong despite short-term price volatility.
History suggests a potential strong November rebound
Historical performance also supports a bullish case for the coming month. November has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, producing an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.
That historical pattern, combined with a still-positive average return of 6.05% for the third quarter, suggests the underlying uptrend remains intact.
“I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism in November,” Lin said.
Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets digest Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could spark a rally.
Lin argues that if Bitcoin follows its typical post-halving cycle, the long-term outlook remains constructive. Citing strong fundamentals—from ETF inflows to growing institutional adoption—she believes a move toward $120,000–$150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.