- Spot demand for BTC has strengthened, and concentrated accumulation suggests durable support.
- Fund flows on Coinbase and Binance point to shifting liquidity that has helped power the upside.
- Bitcoin must break the $113,650 resistance to confirm a breakout; otherwise it risks retesting the $100,000 area.
Bitcoin (BTC) spot markets are showing signs of a potential recovery, supported by on-chain metrics, exchange flow data, and technical indicators that suggest buyers are regaining conviction.
Analysts say recent developments could lay the groundwork for a bullish breakout, though caution remains warranted given September’s historically weaker seasonal tendency for the asset.
On-chain data highlights buyer conviction
Glassnode data shows a marked difference between Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) and that of Ether (ETH).
CBD tracks where large portions of supply have accumulated or dispersed, and it reveals much denser spot activity for Bitcoin compared with ETH.
Trading is tightly clustered around recent price levels, indicating buyers are steadily accumulating.
Historically, this kind of concentrated cluster has offered more durable support than momentum driven primarily by futures markets.
That suggests the current market structure may be more resilient, with spot demand providing a foundation for potential upward movement.
Complementing this trend, long-term holder (LTH) spending has picked up slightly in recent weeks.
The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) shows a gradual rise, signaling some profit-taking.
However, activity remains within normal cycle ranges and is far below the peaks seen in October and November 2024, implying the selling has been measured rather than aggressive.
Exchange flows show shifting liquidity
Exchange flows also reinforce the recovery narrative.
A quick CryptoQuant analysis highlighted sustained net inflows into Coinbase between August 25 and 31 following a period in which its 30-day moving average net flow hit its lowest level since early 2023.
Historically, sharp reversals from multi-year lows often precede structural shifts in liquidity—whether through reserve reallocation or preparation for heightened activity.
At the same time, Binance’s 30-day moving average net flow rose to its highest level since July 2024, with peaks around July 25 and August 25.
Those levels have previously coincided with re-accumulation phases that preceded new local highs.
The concurrence of Coinbase’s trough and Binance’s peak suggests a significant redistribution of reserves, which could underpin BTC’s upward momentum.
Technical levels become the focus
Price action further supports the possibility of a recovery.
Bitcoin dipped to $107,300 on Monday—near its short-term realized price—before staging a sharp rebound.
By the New York session on Tuesday, BTC had taken out Monday’s $109,900 high, showing renewed resilience.
On shorter timeframes, such as the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, Bitcoin has already registered bullish structural breakouts.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above 50, reinforcing growing bullish momentum.
To sustain the recovery, Bitcoin must decisively clear resistance between $112,500 and $113,650.
A daily close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish breakout and negate the descending trendline that constrained price action over the past two weeks.
Such a move could unlock liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
Conversely, if BTC fails to hold momentum above $113,650, downside risk remains.
A failed breakout could push the cryptocurrency back into an order block between $105,000 and $100,000.