Key points
- ADA is down 4% over the last 24 hours and is trading below $0.37.
- The downtrend could push ADA below the psychological $0.30 level.
Cardano on-chain data points to further downside
Cardano’s ADA dropped about 4% in the past 24 hours, making it one of the weakest performers among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. This decline is occurring alongside deteriorating on-chain indicators.
Santiment’s social dominance metric for Cardano shows bearish sentiment. The index tracks the share of social and media discussions referencing ADA among cryptocurrency topics.
The metric has steadily fallen since mid-November, reaching an annual low of 0.032% on Thursday. That decline suggests waning market interest and weakening investor sentiment toward Cardano.
At the same time, an increasing number of traders are moving coins from wallets to exchanges, which has added selling pressure as investors reduce their market exposure.
Derivatives data also supports a more bearish outlook. Coinglass’s open-interest-weighted funding rate data indicate that more traders are positioning for a price drop in ADA over the short term.
The open-interest-weighted funding rate turned negative on Thursday, slipping by 0.0019%, which implies short positions are paying long positions. When this metric turns negative, ADA typically faces stronger downward pressure.
ADA could retest $0.30 as bears remain in control
The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient, reflecting Cardano’s underperformance in recent days. The token was rejected by the upper trendline of a descending wedge pattern on December 9 and has lost roughly 22% since that rejection.
At the time of writing, ADA trades around $0.36 and may slide further in the near term. If the downtrend continues, bears could press the price toward the October 10 low of $0.27.
The 4-hour relative strength index (RSI) sits at 31, approaching oversold territory and indicating strong bearish momentum. Additionally, the MACD produced a bearish crossover on Monday, reinforcing the negative outlook.
If bulls regain momentum, ADA could bounce toward the 50-day moving average near $0.47 in the coming days.