- JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued by about $68,000 and is now more attractive than gold
- BTC slipped below $101,000 as job cuts, weak equities and ETF outflows hit sentiment
- Odds of a Fed rate cut rose to 69%, but uncertainty keeps Bitcoin near the key $100,000 level
Bitcoin traded below $101,000 on Thursday, sliding 2.4% as risk assets declined broadly.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency reflected weakness in U.S. stocks, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moving lower amid renewed concerns over the economy and the labor market.
New data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed more than 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest October total since 2003.
“The rate of layoffs in October was well above the monthly average,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at the firm.
The report added to investor unease, particularly as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed official employment releases. Analysts warned that troubling labor data could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates further to support the economy.
“The economy may need additional Fed rate cuts,” wrote trading research firm The Kobeissi Letter on X, describing the environment as a “new era of monetary policy.”
However, not all market observers expect the Fed to act again in December.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital cautioned that a rate cut at the upcoming meeting is “not guaranteed,” noting markets were pricing only about 60–65% of that outcome.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors currently price roughly a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December.
QCP added that an extended pause in easing could strengthen the U.S. dollar and tighten credit conditions—factors that typically weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Institutional outflows weigh on Bitcoin sentiment
Beyond macroeconomic concerns, Bitcoin is also facing waning institutional demand.
QCP Capital pointed to persistent outflows from U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), totaling nearly $900 million over the first three trading days of the week.
The firm described the $100,000 level as an important “psychological threshold,” suggesting that any stability in ETF flows could quickly swing sentiment.
Market participants remain cautious, with many traders watching a potential pullback toward a “gap” in CME Group Bitcoin futures near $92,000 as a possible support level.
Despite short-term weakness, analysts at JPMorgan see opportunity in the recent pullback.
JPMorgan says Bitcoin is now undervalued versus gold
In a note cited by MarketWatch, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued that Bitcoin looks more attractive than gold after the recent retracement.
The bank’s research indicated that late last year Bitcoin was “overvalued by $36,000 versus gold,” but now appears “undervalued by about $68,000.”
The shift marks a notable change in tone from the investment bank, which has historically viewed Bitcoin as a speculative asset.
Analysts said Bitcoin’s perceived undervaluation could attract investors seeking alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets.
Although institutional outflows have dampened momentum in recent weeks, JPMorgan’s valuation analysis offers a bullish counterpoint, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be oversold relative to long-term benchmarks.
With Bitcoin still trading around the $100,000 mark, market participants will watch closely to see whether renewed institutional interest or a shift toward looser monetary policy can spark another crypto rally in the coming weeks.