- JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued by $68K and now more attractive than gold.
- BTC dips below $101K as layoffs, weak stocks and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment.
- Odds of a Fed rate cut rise to 69%, but uncertainty keeps Bitcoin near the key $100K level.
Bitcoin traded below $101,000 on Thursday, falling about 2.4% as risk assets broadly weakened.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency mirrored U.S. stock weakness, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 sliding amid renewed concerns about the economy and the labor market.
Fresh data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed more than 153,000 announced job cuts in October — the highest October total since 2003.
“October’s pace of job cuts was well above the monthly average,” said Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer.
The latest figures added to investor unease, particularly since the ongoing partial U.S. government shutdown has delayed official employment reports. Analysts suggested the bleak data could pressure the Federal Reserve to deliver additional rate cuts to support the economy.
“The economy may need more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,” trading analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, characterizing the current environment as “a new era of monetary policy.”
However, not all market observers are convinced the Fed will move again in December.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital warned that a cut at the upcoming meeting “is not guaranteed,” noting markets only price in roughly 60–65% odds of a follow-up move.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors currently assign a 69% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December.
QCP added that a prolonged policy pause could keep the U.S. dollar firm and credit conditions tight — factors that typically weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Institutional outflows sap Bitcoin sentiment
Beyond macroeconomic worries, Bitcoin has faced headwinds from fading institutional demand.
QCP Capital pointed to continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), totaling nearly $900 million over the first three trading days of the week.
The firm described the $100,000 level as an important “psychological threshold,” suggesting that any stabilization in ETF flows could quickly shift sentiment — provided no new macro shocks emerge.
Market participants have adopted a cautious tone, with many traders eyeing a potential retracement down toward the open “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures near $92,000 as a possible support area.
Despite short-term weakness, analysts at JPMorgan see a longer-term opportunity following the recent pullback.
JPMorgan says Bitcoin is now undervalued versus gold
In a note cited by MarketWatch, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team argued that Bitcoin has become more attractive than gold after the recent decline.
The bank’s research suggested the cryptocurrency had been “$36,000 too high versus gold” at the end of last year, but is now “about $68,000 too low.”
The shift marks a notable change in tone from the investment bank, which has historically viewed Bitcoin as a speculative asset.
Analysts indicated that Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation could make it appealing to investors seeking alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets.
While institutional outflows have tempered momentum in recent weeks, JPMorgan’s assessment provides an upside counterpoint, highlighting that the cryptocurrency may have entered oversold territory relative to its long-term benchmarks.
As Bitcoin continues to trade around the $100,000 mark, market participants will watch whether renewed institutional interest or dovish shifts in monetary policy can reignite the cryptocurrency’s rally in the coming weeks.