Key takeaways
- BTC is targeting resistance near $120,000 ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- Resistance at $116,000 remains an obstacle for traders despite recent price action.
BTC still trading below $116,000 resistance
The cryptocurrency market started the week on a bearish note but is now showing signs of recovery as Bitcoin and several major altcoins register gains. Bitcoin dropped to around $114,000 on Monday, while many altcoins posted larger declines.
Since then, BTC has recovered slightly and is trading above $115,000, but resistance at $116,000 remains relevant. Price action has mostly stalled ahead of tomorrow’s key FOMC meeting.
Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, with some forecasting a 50-basis-point reduction. Markets on Polymarket show odds above 90% for a cut, while the CME FedWatch Tool prices in roughly a 95% probability. A Fed rate cut would likely be supportive for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which could resume its push toward its all-time high.
BTC eyes $120,000 ahead of the FOMC
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains constructive despite Monday’s pullback. Technical indicators have improved over the past several hours, and attention is squarely on the expected Fed rate decision.
The RSI near 55 indicates buyers still retain control, and MACD lines are positioned in bullish territory. If the $116,000 resistance is breached, BTC could quickly push toward the psychological $120,000 level within hours or days. A sustained rally beyond that could put the coin back in play for new record highs above $125,000.
Conversely, failure to clear $116,000 may trigger further downside correction. In that scenario, Bitcoin could retest the trendline and support around $113,479. That support level is likely to hold in the near term, with the next meaningful support zone lying closer to $110,000.