After tumbling to $60,000 during the early February crash, Bitcoin staged a quick recovery, climbing to nearly $83,000 last week — a roughly 38% gain. That surge prompted some observers to ask whether the bear market was finally over.
But recent price action has been mixed, and BTC slid to a two-week low of about $78,000 yesterday. Many analysts are less confident that the bottom has firmly established, and several have issued cautionary notes.
P/L at High Levels
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the average trader’s realized profit margin, which has risen to around 17%. He called this a “major warning sign,” noting it is the highest level since October 2025 — just before the massive crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and marked the start of a prolonged downtrend that culminated in a 53% fall from $126,000 to $60,000. Martinez argues that, with many investors now sitting on meaningful gains, a wave of selling could follow as some look to take profits.
“What stands out to me is the historical context. The last time profit margins hit 17% while Bitcoin was testing its 200-day moving average as resistance was in March 2022. That specific alignment signaled the exact moment the local top was in before the downtrend resumed in earnest.”
Doctor Profit Still Bearish
Doctor Profit remains one of the more consistently bearish commentators. Having made bearish calls around the October 2025 peak, he has been shorting BTC since it was near $120,000. He warned last week that the rebound toward $80,000 could be another bear trap and now lists downside targets as low as $50,000 or lower if macro conditions deteriorate further.
In a recent update, he reiterated that many traders “are not ready for what’s coming,” outlining a mix of positions he has placed: shorts opened at higher levels and partial long positions closed around recent pullbacks. His chart continues to point toward a path down to $50,000.
$BTC: No one is ready for whats coming , the current status is as follow:
1. Short from 120k
2. Long from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Long from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts accumulated at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining short orders active (70%)Again, most not ready for whats coming pic.twitter.com/oB5N0aTK7m
— Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) May 16, 2026
Historical Patterns Would Be Broken
Rekt Capital also expressed skepticism that Bitcoin has reached a cycle bottom. The analyst argued that if investors assume BTC will not revisit $60,000, they must accept several unlikely deviations from historical behavior, including:
– That the bear market has shortened to roughly one-third of its normal duration for a Bitcoin bottom;
– That bear market corrections have shallowed dramatically by about 25% compared with previous cycles, despite historical differences typically being closer to 10%;
– That the previous bull market never truly ended, meaning the current price action is merely a recovery from a bull correction and that the previous bull cycle has effectively lengthened by over 200 days.
Rekt Capital concluded that, unless proven otherwise, accepting that Bitcoin has already bottomed would require invalidating long-standing market cycle principles — an outcome the analyst considers probabilistically unlikely.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s recent rebound has sparked hopes for a sustained recovery, several respected analysts warn the rally could be fragile. Elevated realized profits, persistent bearish positions from experienced traders, and a potential break from historical cycle behavior are all cited as reasons to remain cautious. Traders and investors should weigh these risks carefully and consider that a renewed leg down remains a plausible scenario until clear, consistent evidence of a durable market shift appears.